BG Reads // July 22, 2025

Author

A.J. Bingham
July 22, 2025

Presented By

www.binghamgp.com

✅ Today's BG Reads include:

🟪 Experts shed light on forecasting challenges following Central Texas flooding (Community Impact)

🟪 Longest-serving Travis County Commissioner, Margaret Gómez, to retire at end of term (Austin American-Statesman)

🟪 To slash costs, Austin will decide whether to cut firefighter staffing below national standards (KUT)

🟪 Campaign finance reports show incumbents gathering funds (Austin Monitor)

🟪 Former Council Member Bill Spelman has passed away (Austin Monitor)

🟪 John Zerwas sole finalist for UT System chancellor; Jim Davis lone candidate for UT-Austin president (Texas Tribune)

🟪 Texas Democrats vow to use delay tactics to drag out GOP redistricting effort (Texas Tribune)

🟪 Decline in immigration could affect economy, Dallas Fed study shows (KERA)

[CITY OF AUSTIN]

🏛️ Memos:

[AUSTIN METRO NEWS]

✅ Experts shed light on forecasting challenges following Central Texas flooding (Community Impact)

A large stretch of Central Texas—including Kerr County, which was hardest-hit by severe flooding over the July 4 weekend—is known as “flash flood alley.” The region includes the Colorado and Guadalupe River basins, the latter of which is “one of the three most dangerous regions in the U.S.A. for flash floods,” according to the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority.

Meteorologists say the region is frequently hit with floods, although some officials and residents were caught off guard by the catastrophic storms, which killed more than 100 people over the holiday weekend.

“No one knew this kind of flood was coming,” Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly said during a July 4 news conference. “We have floods all the time. ... When it rains, we get water. And we had no reason to believe that this was gonna be anything like what’s happened here.”

As of July 10, local and state officials said at least 119 people were confirmed dead as a result of the flooding, including 96 fatalities in Kerr County, eight in Kendall County, seven in Travis County, four in Burnet County, three in Williamson County and one in Tom Green County… 🟪 (READ MORE)

✅ Longest-serving Travis County Commissioner, Margaret Gómez, to retire at end of term (Austin American-Statesman)

Travis County Commissioner Margaret Gómez, who has represented Precinct 4 for nearly three decades, announced Monday that she will retire at the end of her term in 2026.

Gómez is currently the longest-serving member of the Commissioners Court, having held the office since 1995. Her decision to step down will mark the end of a public service career that has spanned 52 years. 

“I consider myself very lucky to have found my niche in public service and have learned so much about Travis County Precinct 4, its residents, and their needs,” Gómez said in a new release. “I will remain interested in the needs of Precinct 4 being met by a future Commissioner who knows County government, County issues, and the community.”

During Gómez’s tenure, Travis County experienced tremendous growth, a trend that created “growing needs” that Gómez helped the Commissioners Court address, according to the news release. Gómez was involved in the creation of the Travis County Health and Human Services Department; Human Resources Department; STAR Flight; the Travis County Correctional Complex in Del Valle; and the Travis County Housing Authority.

When she was elected to Commissioners Court in 1995, she was the first Mexican-American woman to hold the office in the county. Prior to her election, she served as Travis County’s first elected female constable starting in 1980… 🟪 (READ MORE)

✅ To slash costs, Austin will decide whether to cut firefighter staffing below national standards (KUT)

The city of Austin is looking to cut overtime for Austin firefighters as a way to save money in the new budget. The change would mean adjusting staffing levels on many fire trucks, which some officials said puts people and fire crews at risk.

When a fire team responds to a fire there are a minimum of four firefighters on each truck. That is the recommended standard by the National Fire Protection Association. A 2018 city ordinance requires at least four people on each truck.

Under a new plan, some fire trucks would be staffed with a minimum of three people. The shift is part of the $6.3 billion budget proposal.

Austin City Manager T.C. Broadnax said making the change would save the city about $8.3 million.

“Right now, on every apparatus it is mandated that there are four people on each one of the units regardless, and so that is driving overtime particularly when we have people who are out on vacation, on sick leave, or are injured,” Broadnax said. “So they’re calling people back, which doesn't give time for people to actually rest and actually recharge their battery.”… 🟪 (READ MORE)

✅ Campaign finance reports show incumbents gathering funds (Austin Monitor)

With the exception of District 1 Council Member Natasha Harper-Madison, incumbents who may run for re-election in 2026 have been gathering funds for possible races. That includes Council Members Ryan Alter (District 5), Zo Qadri (District 9) and Paige Ellis (District 8).

Ellis has already indicated that she will be gathering signatures to put her name on the ballot next year because she will have served two terms.  An opponent, Selena Xie, has also announced that she will run for the District 8 seat. Xie reported raising nearly $36,000 with nearly $59,000 in the bank. As the president of the Austin EMS Association, Xie can expect (and has received) considerable support from her union.

Ellis indicated she has raised more than $53,000 and has $71,000 in her campaign coffers. Of course, she will need to spend some of that gathering signatures.

The District 2 Council Member, Mayor Pro Tem Vanessa Fuentes has not raised any money this year. Her campaign has nearly $53,000 and owes her $3851.

A newcomer to Austin politics, personal injury attorney Ard Ardalan, has filed a report indicating that he intends to run for the District 9 seat currently held by Qadri. However, his campaign finance report shows he raised no money as of the end of June. Qadri is reporting he still has more than $184,000 after raising about $37,000 this year… 🟪 (READ MORE)

✅ John Zerwas sole finalist for UT System chancellor; Jim Davis lone candidate for UT-Austin president (Texas Tribune)

The University of Texas System Board of Regents named former Texas Republican lawmaker John Zerwas the sole finalist for the position of chancellor during a brief telephone meeting Monday.

They also named interim University of Texas at Austin President Jim Davis as a sole finalist for that job.

Rather than do a national search, regents said they would create a committee of faculty, staff, students, alumni and community members, along with the presidents of two other UT System schools, to offer the board advice and an evaluation of Davis.

“We're extremely excited about the process for these two gentlemen,” said Board Chair Kevin P. Eltife. “We think they'll do an outstanding job for UT System and the flagship, and we look forward to working with them.”… 🟪 (READ MORE)

✅ Former Council Member Bill Spelman has passed away (Austin Monitor)

Former Council Member Bill Spelman died last Thursday at the age of 68 after a series of illnesses including Covid, according to his wife, Niyanta.

Spelman, who served on the Austin City Council from 1997 to 2000 and then served again from 2009 to the end of 2014, was well known as the teacher on the dais, a man who did his research and shared it. Spelman also taught courses in applied math and statistics, urban policy and public management at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas. He is still listed online as a professor emeritus… 🟪 (READ MORE)

[TEXAS/US NEWS]

✅ Texas Democrats vow to use delay tactics to drag out GOP redistricting effort (Texas Tribune)

As the Texas Legislature’s overtime special session kicked off Monday, Democratic lawmakers promised to make their Republican colleagues’ efforts to redraw the state’s congressional maps as painful and protracted a battle as possible. They threatened to drag out hearings, filibuster and even flee the state to deny the quorum necessary to conduct legislative business.

As the minority in both chambers, Democrats have few options to stop redistricting through normal legislative channels. While they’ve managed to delay controversial legislation through filibusters and quorum breaks over the years, they’ve never successfully killed such a high-profile measure through these back-door methods.

Rep. Gene Wu, chair of the House Democratic Caucus, said they still have to try, “whether we win or lose, no matter what happens.”

In a letter to Gov. Greg Abbott sent Monday, a majority of House Democrats called on the governor to prioritize responding to the Central Texas floods, saying they “refuse to engage in any other legislative work until after adequate flood relief and disaster mitigation legislation are passed and signed by the Governor.”… 🟪 (READ MORE)

✅ Dallas Fed: Texas may see 1.7% job growth in 2025 (Texas Public Radio)

The Texas employment forecast released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas this month reported job growth could be around 1.7% in 2025.

That's lower than June's forecast of 2% job growth.

The forecast is based on models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.

“Employment fell in June for the first time in a year, with the state losing 15,500 jobs,” said Jesus Cañas, Dallas Fed senior business economist.

June job declines hit many sectors, led by cuts in the oil and gas and professional business services sectors.

"The only sectors that added jobs last month were information services, education and health, and government. Additionally, employment fell in all major Texas metros except for San Antonio.” he added.

The Dallas Fed estimated 244,600 jobs will be added in the state this year, and overall employment by December 2025 may number 14.5 million.     

The Texas unemployment rate decreased to 4% in June… 🟪 (READ MORE)

✅ Decline in immigration could affect economy, Dallas Fed study shows (KERA)

A decline in immigration into the U.S. could impact economic growth in the future, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. While there was a surge in “unauthorized immigration” from 2021 to 2024, the abrupt decline in recent months has had “negative implications for economic growth,” the report shows. The study looked at potential effects of immigration policy from 2025 through 2027.

According to the study, the decline in immigration began in June 2024 when the Biden administration began restricting migrants’ ability to request asylum at the border. By March 2025, net unauthorized immigration was down 82 percent from the December 2024 level, from 105,000 to 19,000 per month.

At the beginning of this year, the country was still seeing immigrants come into the labor force, said Pia Orrenius, vice president of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and co-author of the report. According to the study, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that 7.3 million “other foreign nationals,” unauthorized immigrants or immigrants with some form of quasi-legal status, were added to the U.S. population between 2021 and 2024, compared to the pre-pandemic annual average of about 100,000.

“Most of that is probably petering out now, as well as some of the other immigration policies, like abolishing TPS and humanitarian parole and taking away work permits, or not renewing work permits or not issuing work permits,” Orrenius said. President Donald Trump made immigration a focus of his campaign for a second term, promising to close the border and ramp up deportations.

The administration’s policies could now be suppressing job creation and labor growth, Orrenius said. Deportation fears could also be keeping immigrants without legal status from participating in the economy in other ways, she said. They might be too afraid to leave their homes.

“There could be chilling effects where people actually don't leave, they don't self-deport, or they aren't deported, but are less likely to leave their home, less likely to go to church, less likely to go to school, and less likely spend money,” Orrenius said. Xiaoqing Zhou, assistant vice president of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and co-author of the report, said there’s not only supply side effects, but demand side effects as well. “When you have less immigrants, it has spillover effects on non-immigrant workers,” she said… 🟪 (READ MORE)

✅ The U.S. economy is regaining its swagger (Wall Street Journal)

When President Trump slapped tariffs on nations across the globe this spring, many economists feared higher prices and spending cuts would flatten the economy. Consumer sentiment collapsed. The S&P 500 stock index fell by 19% between February and April. The world held its breath and waited for the bottom to drop out. But that didn’t happen. Now businesses and consumers are regaining their swagger, and evidence is mounting that those who held back are starting to splurge again. The stock market is reaching record highs.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, which tumbled in April to its lowest reading in almost three years, has begun climbing again. Retail sales are up more than economists had forecast, and sky-high inflation hasn’t materialized—at least not yet. “We’ve been surprised again and again by consumers,” said Jonathan Millar, senior U.S. economist at Barclays. In April, Millar predicted that the U.S. economy would likely go into recession this year. He now expects it to keep growing, albeit at a slow pace.

JPMorgan Chase reported unexpectedly strong earnings last week and said the bank’s economists are no longer expecting a recession. “After the initial shock of tariff policy changes, everyone kind of went on hold,” said Jeremy Barnum, the bank’s chief financial officer. But “at a certain moment, you just have to move on with your life. And it does feel like some of that is happening just because you can’t delay forever.”

The bank said card-spending grew 7%. Elsewhere, Bank of America, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs reported rising profits, while United Airlines noted improved travel demand. A busy slate of earnings in the coming weeks will help create a fuller picture. In a July survey of 1,267 U.S. small-business owners by digital-marketing platform Constant Contact, 44% of respondents said demand for services and products is higher than they anticipated in January. A third were extremely optimistic that their business would be performing better in the next three months, and just under a third thought they would add more employees by then.

There are signs of weakness in the labor market, where hiring by private employers has been sluggish. But the unemployment rate, 4.1% in June, remains low by historical standards because employers have also been reluctant to cut jobs... 🟪 (READ MORE)

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